When Countries Run Out of Children

Around the world, more young people than ever are choosing not to have children. In the US, the birth rate has been falling since the mid-1800s, when women averaged seven children. Of course, back then, many kids didn't survive long.

However, for the first time in 2024, the US birth rate dropped to 1.6 births per woman — well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain population levels.

This isn't just an American story. Globally, birth rates have also plummeted more than 50% over the past 70 years, representing one of the most remarkable demographic shifts in human history.

What is fueling this change? Several factors appear to contribute. Contraception provided women with unprecedented control over pregnancy. Children started living longer, lessening the need for large families. But economics also play a role — the high costs of housing, education, and healthcare make raising kids more expensive. Urban living is linked to smaller families, possibly due to lifestyle shifts and limited space.

Women's roles have changed significantly. More women work outside the home and postpone having children until after age 30. Education is very important — studies show that increasing women's education by just one year lowers birth rates. At the same time, more adults are living alone, and divorce rates have increased.

Another trend that may be related to the changing birth rate is parents' preferences for boys over girls.

In the mid-1980s, widespread access to ultrasound made it routine to determine fetal sex. In many cultures, families started terminating female pregnancies, believing males were more valuable to the family. Given the natural ratio of about 105 boys to 100 girls, hundreds of millions of expected female births went unaccounted for worldwide. China, with its One Child Policy enacted in 1980, exhibited the most extreme disparities.

Gender imbalances can have widespread social impacts. Studies suggest that when male-to-female ratios become too uneven, rates of sexual violence and rape tend to rise. However, over the past decade, attitudes have changed significantly. Worldwide, far fewer families abort females solely because they prefer males. For instance, China ended the one-child policy in 2016 and has experienced a sharp decline in female terminations.

In fact, the gender preference is reversing in some places. In Japan, when couples choose to have only one child, they increasingly prefer girls. Perhaps because daughters are more likely to care for elderly parents. Or maybe because in many countries, females now achieve higher education levels and have lower crime rates.

Looking ahead, reproductive technologies will make sex selection even easier, along with other genetic choices. But regardless of gender preferences, the broader trend is clear: estimates suggest that within decades, over 75% of nations won't have enough births to sustain their populations.

The implications are staggering. Aging populations mean fewer workers to drive economic growth and support retirees. Countries that once worried about overpopulation now face the opposite problem — not having enough people.

This demographic revolution is reshaping our world in ways we're only beginning to understand.

– Dr. Michael Wilkes with a Second Opinion