NBC’s Steve Kornacki deep into hour six of counting election results on Tuesday night. Screenshot from YouTube/NBC News.

I spent hours last night watching Kornacki Cam to see how the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor would go.

There was suspense. There was boredom. There was lots of math.

There was a shared sense of defeat when NBC’s data guru Steve Kornacki and the 40,000 or so of us watching his very spare livestream on YouTube found out that an issue with USB drives would delay the final results from Milwaukee indefinitely.

There was also minimal punditry and lots of intellectual humility given the surprise result, with the establishment-backed David Crowley beating the polls and ultimately defeating democratic socialist Francesca Hong.

Democratic voters seemed to send mixed messages about the direction of the party between Hong’s defeat this week and last week’s victory for Michigan progressive Abdul El-Sayed over establishment favorite Haley Stevens in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary.

Both races were tight, decided by a point or less. Neither outcome would qualify as a mandate for either wing of the party, and, as I wrote last week, whether more progressive candidates beat Republicans in November will have a big impression on the 2028 presidential race.

At least, that’s true for those of us in the media who are prone towards story bias — looking for patterns and trends we can hang a narrative on.

But the mixed results in Democratic primaries, which stretch far beyond the last couple of weeks, may be the latest sign that we aren’t listening closely enough to voters.

In Michigan, El-Sayed faced many controversies, including charges of anti-semitism over his criticism of Israel and AIPAC, as well as past statements about defunding the police and other polarizing issues. El-Sayed was disciplined with his messaging, able to stay focused on his economic policies in spite of that, and voters responded.

By contrast, in Wisconsin, Hong gave muddled answers when she faced controversy over her past statements, like calling to cancel Thanksgiving. That pulled attention from her focus on economic issues and AI data centers. Hong didn’t even get endorsements from major democratic socialist figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Their distance may have sent a decisive message to voters in such a close race.

In Minnesota, the more progressive Senate candidate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, defeated moderate Rep. Angie Craig. A major issue there was Craig’s vote in favor of a Trump-backed law that required federal agents to detain undocumented immigrants accused of even non-violent crimes like shoplifting. The enduring pain over the killings of Alex Pretti and Renée Good in the midst of an ICE surge in Minneapolis made Craig’s position untenable for most Democratic voters.

This is just a small sample of primary races, but they are illustrative of how different each contest is. This was clear last year when more centrist Democrats like New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger won competitive statewide races on the same day that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani became the first democratic socialist to win his overwhelmingly liberal city.

Those of us who follow politics closely have spent the last several years talking about the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party, or qualities like “electability” and “authenticity” that are hard to define and don’t apply the same way to individual races.

This primary season should be humbling for the prognosticators, and definitely the pollsters who have been way off in marquee Democratic primaries.

Anxiety over the future of our politics and our democracy drives the hunger for many of us – professional and amateur political junkies alike – to predict what will happen next.

There are three things any of us can do that are much more effective:

1. Get involved (Here’s how)
2. Vote (Here’s how)
3. Wait patiently for the results (Suggestions include going for a walk, reading a book, or baking something.)

THIS WEEK’S OPEN TABS

🗳️President Trump continues teasing the idea of declaring a national emergency ahead of the election. But there are actually a lot of protections in federal law against Trump disrupting the midterms, according to the nonpartisan group Protect Democracy.

📱Meta faces consequences in court over the harm children face on their platforms. KCRW’s Question Everything podcast has been doing deep and compelling reporting on the latest ruling in New Mexico, as well as the consequences it has for kids and tech companies. Listen here.

🦅RIP Jackie: People around the world were moved by the life and death of bald eagle Jackie here in Southern California. Through a video live stream, we followed her parenting journey, fierce protection of her eaglets, and the stunning, patriotic beauty of such a regal bird. One of the people who cared for her most reflects on what made Jackie so inspiring.

Take care,

Arnie Seipel
KCRW Editor-in-Chief
 

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Disclaimer: This newsletter, “KCRW's Steady State,” is not affiliated with The Steady State, a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization founded in 2016 and comprised of more than 390 former senior national security professionals. They advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.