Are We Prepared for a Bird Flu Epidemic?

California Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency over the H5N1 bird flu virus. The declaration gives government agencies the “resources and flexibility they need to respond quickly to this outbreak."

At this point, in California, there are about 34 known cases of bird flu in humans — most of them among people working in the cattle industry.

The disease has spread widely among mammals, birds, and poultry. If the virus changes only slightly, which this family of viruses often does, it has the potential for a pandemic that could be far more deadly than COVID.

David Bunn is a farm animal and public health expert at UC Davis who has worked worldwide. He is alarmed. “If this virus mutates and spreads easily, human to human, it’s likely to take off quickly, and we don’t have the adequate surveillance capacity to identify it immediately and stop it. It will spread around the nation in a month. It will spread around the globe in a few months. COVID killed one in 1000 people that got it, and H5N1 could be far greater than that. It could be 10 or 100 times more fatalities per case than was with COVID.”

While the virus can be highly lethal, many cases can be mild, meaning the infected person may not visit a doctor and get lab tests. They might also fear that if they test positive, they’ll need to stay home and stop working – meaning no salary and no worker’s comp. Infected people develop red, itchy eyes, cough, headache, and fever. Because these are pretty general symptoms, it’s hard to identify the bug without a test.

Scientists are using wastewater surveillance to understand better how it is spreading. Wastewater in several Californian cities, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, now contains detectable pieces of H5N1.

People can get bird flu from sick animals through exposure to secretions or animal waste if it comes into contact with a person’s eyes, nose, mouth, or when inhaled. The virus can also be passed through raw, non-pasteurized milk and from undercooked eggs.

We can intervene in several ways. We can prevent the spread by continuing to cull sick or exposed animals, and we can rely on vaccines. But as of now, there are no human vaccines in the United States that prevent H5N1. Seasonal flu vaccines don’t cover bird flu. Companies are working on bird flu vaccine development, but the process has been moving too slowly for years. With a new administration at the FDA and CDC, nothing related to new vaccines will be smooth.

David Bunn says the state needs to step up even more. “I think it’s key that California step in and basically do what it can to basically help move a vaccine along and prepare Californians. We can’t count on the feds to do anything the next four years properly on this, and I think it’s highly unlikely they’re going to be doing what they need to really move the virus the vaccine along quickly.

As for treatment, once someone gets the disease, the drugs we have just aren’t very effective.

So, for now, we need to do what we can to avoid the virus. And, the State of California needs to continue to monitor the disease and protect the public.

– Dr. Michael Wilkes with a Second Opinion

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