--- title: "One Week To The Midterms: What We’ll Learn" --- Will Trump try to overturn the vote? Which races will shape our politics moving forward?  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­   | Not rendering correctly? View this email as a web page here. Photo Illustration by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images. Hi there - It’s time to stop looking at midterm polls. They’ll just feed your anxiety for the next week. It’s time to make sure you vote, and you can start thinking about what we’ll learn from the outcome of these races. I’m talking about questions that go beyond who wins and who loses, the ones that reveal trends which will shape our politics into the future. Here are four major questions that will (hopefully) be answered next week. 1. How far is the Trump Justice Dept. willing to go to interfere in or undermine the vote? This is by far the most important question we face between now and next Tuesday, and there is a flurry of activity in these final days before votes are tabulated. Just today, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed the DOJ’s effort to get California to set aside ballots the Trump administration says are from suspected noncitizen voters. There’s also a stunning effort to pre-emptively block a potential Democratic victory in the Alaska Senate race. Trump said he personally ordered DOJ to file a lawsuit there over the fact that a candidate with almost the same name as the sitting Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is on the ballot and could split the vote, even though the state ruled that the other Dan Sullivan is allowed to run. This is seen as a very weak case, precisely because states run our elections — not the federal government. 2. Will the GOP redistricting effort work or backfire? President Trump pushed Republican lawmakers in several states to implement an unprecedented redistricting effort to preserve GOP seats. A new NPR analysis shows that, of the 15 districts created to favor Republicans, only five are now considered likely or certain to fall the GOP’s way. Several of the new districts created in Texas are still competitive for Democrats because the new maps were drawn based on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, in which Trump did unusually well for a Republican among younger and minority voters. Those groups have swung hard against the GOP this year. Data from Texas shows that younger Latino voters are doubling their early voting participation from 2024. Voting usually doesn’t go up from a presidential to a midterm year, so this could be a key signal about voter energy this year. 3. Do Senate seats in red states flip? Of course, Texas is also at the center of the Senate battle. Democrats have pined for the Lone Star State for decades to no avail, but now it seems totally possible they could win since President Trump pushed Republican Ken Paxton to a primary victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who would have been a much stronger candidate. If Democrat James Talarico wins, it’s possible that Texas could be the state that delivers Democrats their majority. Other traditionally Republican states are in play since Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran have hit businesses and consumers' wallets hard. Farm states like Iowa and Kansas, as well as Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, are all considered “toss-up” seats by the Cook Political Report. These are states where Trump won in 2016, 2020, and 2024. 4. How successful are left-wing candidates? The answer here will lie largely in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running a very close race with Republican Mike Rogers, enduring brutal Islamophobic and racist attacks from Trump in the final days. Aside from whether El-Sayed will be elected the first-ever Muslim U.S. senator, this race will shape perceptions of how competitive left-wing progressives can be in swing states. That will have an impact on the dynamics heading into the next presidential race. Sorry, but it’s true that the 2028 primary season will likely begin with candidate announcements in the coming weeks. If El-Sayed is able to win big in Michigan, it’ll be a huge boost to the progressive left as it looks to shape the Democratic Party moving into the next election. If he barely wins or loses, it may make Democratic voters more cautious about backing vocal progressives. Next week, I’ll be here with a viewer’s guide to Election Night results. GO DEEPER 🗳️ Utah’s Republican Lieutenant Gov. Deirdre Henderson is pushing back on the Trump DOJ’s effort to access her state’s voter rolls. She explained why to KCRW’s Question Everything podcast. Listen here. ⏱️ It may take a while to learn the final results of next week’s elections. NPR explains, including why California gets too much of the blame. 🖼️ Here’s something that’s purely fascinating. Scientists believe they pinpointed the exact date that Vincent Van Gogh painted “Starry Night” based on the position of the stars, Moon, and Venus in the painting. Take care, Arnie Seipel KCRW Editor-in-Chief If someone forwarded this to you and you want to subscribe, click here. KCRW 1900 Pico Blvd.  Santa Monica, CA 90405  You received this email because you are subscribed to Steady State Newsletter from KCRW. Update your email preferences to choose the types of emails you receive. Unsubscribe from all future emails. | | --- |