Author’s note: I’m Arnie Seipel. I spent years covering politics and policy for NPR in Washington, D.C. Now, I’m the content chief at KCRW. With this weekly analysis of political news, I want to help you keep your head on straight when the onslaught of stories each week has you spinning.

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Hi there -

There is no bigger problem we have faced as a country over the last decade than losing any shared sense of truth. All of our other problems cannot be addressed without a common understanding of facts.

It’s why I write this newsletter and why I’ve been tearing my hair out since the immediate aftermath of the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner became awash in conspiracy theories.

Donald Trump has been an incredible purveyor of conspiracy theories and accelerant of misinformation; his lies about the 2020 election and empowering the QAnon movement are the most potent examples.

I’ve been thinking about conspiracy theories a lot lately. Last week, I shared a Wired story about MAGA followers coalescing behind the conspiracy theories around Trump’s attempted assassination in Butler, Penn., in 2024.

It’s a really interesting story because it represents Trump’s conspiratorial chickens coming home to roost.

There’s also the recent series of deaths and disappearances of government scientists. The public prominence and corresponding theoretical connection between those cases was actually raised by internet-borne conspiracy theories. What got the attention of the FBI is that the disappearances themselves are a disturbing fact pattern. But the speculation about why or how these deaths and disappearances have happened is coming from people with no close knowledge of the situation.

Then on Saturday, we had the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

Immediately, social media and private text chains (including some of my own) lit up with people asserting that this must have been staged.

There is literally no evidence that Trump has staged an assassination attempt against himself. Ever.

There is a lot of suggestive questioning and ideas about possible motives to do this, but no one has presented any actual evidence that it happened or how it might have happened.

Do these conspiracy theories come from a real belief that Trump would stage attempts on his own life for political gain? (The cynicism there is easy to understand.) Could it be a mix of payback and schadenfreude — fanning dark conspiracy theories as retribution because Trump has himself fanned so many conspiracy theories? It’s likely a bit of everything that’s lifting conspiracy theories into mainstream discourse.

Questions are fine. We should seek out answers. But the more people openly dabble in conspiracy theories that disregard factual evidence, the more permission we give each other to perpetuate any misinformation.

Conspiracy theories have real-world implications. The Pizzagate episode that emerged from QAnon led to actual gunfire in a Washington, D.C., restaurant. Foreign adversaries like Russia and Iran love to promote them to amplify divisions among Americans and distrust in the American government.

There’s a history of conspiracy theories in America that remains relevant in the cultural zeitgeist despite evidence that discredits them.

One of the most impactful pieces of broadcast journalism from my formative years was a 2003 ABC News special hosted by the late Peter Jennings: “The Kennedy Assassination - Beyond Conspiracy.”

At the time, 80% of Americans believed there was a conspiracy to kill JFK.

Jennings took a deep look at various conspiracy theories and laid them against cold, hard facts.

His reporting showed there was no hard evidence that contradicted the original conclusion of the Warren Commission investigation: Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.

Among the most insidious theories Jennings debunked was the one perpetuated by director Oliver Stone in the 1991 film JFK – the magic bullet theory. It posited that a single bullet couldn’t have struck Kennedy and Texas Gov. John Connally seated in front of him in a straight line. One problem: Single bullet conspiracists, along with Stone’s film, didn’t have the placement of their seats inside the car aligned correctly.

Just last year, President Trump had the classified files on the JFK assassination released. It revealed a lot about how the CIA operated in the ‘50s and ‘60s, but ultimately provided no evidence that Oswald was part of a conspiracy.

One problem for a lot of people is that the idea of Oswald acting alone seems too simple an explanation for such an earth-shattering event. Occam’s razor is the antithesis of conspiracy theories. In these world-changing events, the simplest explanation is not the one people can accept.

So when we examine the Butler assassination attempt, the shooter, Thomas Crooks’, motives leave a lot to be desired for a public trying to make sense of the big and scary thing that’s happened in their world.

The New York Times performed a deep investigation into Crooks. The answers may not be satisfying to conspiracy theorists because they aren’t dramatic or complicated. Thomas Crooks lived a small, sad, isolated life that culminated in a “descent into madness.”

While there’s not much to it, it’s also a pretty complete picture. It matches the pattern of too many high-profile shootings we’ve endured over the last three decades.

Stick to the facts and resist conspiracy theories.

THIS WEEK’S OPEN TABS

Breaking today: The Supreme Court has struck another blow to the Voting Rights Act with a decision against Louisiana congressional maps. It could have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in Washington. NPR’s explainer is here.

King Charles III gave a polite yet withering pushback to President Trump in his speech to Congress. The Guardian’s analysis is worth reading to understand everything that was happening in “the room where it happened.”

The Atlantic: “A Mexican athlete said he was kidnapped and forced to compete for his life in a tournament of gangs. But was he actually playing a different game?”

Take care,
Arnie

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Disclaimer: This newsletter, “KCRW's Steady State,” is not affiliated with The Steady State, a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization founded in 2016 and comprised of more than 390 former senior national security professionals. They advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.